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United Kingdom (EN) Oscars 2025 Predictions: Which Stars Are Dominating Online Buzz?
The Oscars are less than 1 week away, and with hype building, both among experts and online, data could indicate who the ultimate winners could be. This article dives into the most searched Oscar contenders, the fan favorites flying under the radar, and how public hype compares to the odds and expert opinions. We have analysed how the two differ, and which is the best indication of who the winners might be.
Most Searched Nominees
In 2024, Oppenheimer dominated searches leading up to the 2023 Oscars. Oppenheimer, following receiving 13 nominations, went on to win 5, including best film.
Wicked and The Brutalist currently lead the way as the most searched nominees over the past 6 weeks, including the period before the Oscar nominee announcements. However, since then, Anora, Conclave, and A Complete Unknown have matched them in searches.
There is a major difference in expectations this year. Oppenheimer was also considered the favourite leading up to the announcement and also dominated searches. This year, Anora is the favorite among bookmakers and betting sites but isn’t dominating searches in the same way, being only the 3rd most searched among the leading Oscar favorites.
Underrated Nominees
In a Reddit poll that was conducted prior to the Oscar nominee announcements, Dune: Part 2 was voted as the best movie of 2024.
Anora comes in at second behind Dune: Part 2. Along with Dune: Part 2, another outsider, The Substance, also scored highly among movie fans on Reddit. Dune may face an uphill battle to secure the Best Film award. The Oscars have typically favored more serious movies, rather than science fiction or fantasy movies, a notable exception being The Shape of Water in 2017, and The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King in 2003.
Dune 2 also scores the highest among the nominated movies this year on IMDB. Although IMDB keeps their exact formula for calculating scores secret, it is largely decided by IMDB users. Suggesting that Dune 2 is a strong favorite among film fans.
One factor in Dune 2’s strong support among fans is a bias towards, popular, established franchises. Although it is only the second movie, the Dune movies are based on a popular book.
Industry vs Public Perception
| Movie | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Anora | 1/2 | 66.7% |
| Conclave | 9/4 | 30.8% |
| The Brutalist | 13/2 | 13.3% |
| A Complete Unknown | 50/1 | 2.0% |
| Emilia Perez | 66/1 | 1.5% |
| Wicked | 66/1 | 1.5% |
| The Substance | 100/1 | 1% |
| Dune 2 | 100/1 | 1% |
With Anora currently the comfortable favourite, it seems that what fans think is the best, and what The Academy think are the best seem to differ starkly.
What movie industry insiders at The Academy think is the best movie doesn’t always match. The Academy tends to choose movies with stronger substance, storytelling and strong artistic value. Fans tend not to consider the artistic value so much, as they are the ones viewing the movie from the perspective of an outsider, in the cinema or from the comfort of their couch at home. This can partially explain the difference between IMDB ratings and fan polls, versus what bookmakers believe to be the favorites, who consider much wider factors than just fan enjoyment. As a result, these might be better at determining who is more likely to win.
One thing is for sure, fans of all the nominated movies will be hoping their favourite comes through on March 2nd.
Sources
Movie scores were taken from IMDB.
Poll results were taken from a Reddit poll in r/Oscars for the best movie of 2024.
Bookmakers odds were taken from a collection of betting sites, calculating a combined average.
